Fighting Belt
Fighting Belt
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UFC 109 Fight Analysis and Prediction: Matt Serra vs Frank Trigg
The fight between Matt Serra and Frank Trigg it is going to be a close one. A lose for both Serra or Trigg could mean an end to their fighting careers.
Serra is a high level black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has faced some of the best grapplers in the world. He has competed in the ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship and has won a bronze medal in the1999 CBJJ World Championships and has a first place finish as a purple belt at the Pan-Ams.
However, Serra has not been a force in the world of grappling for a number of years now. In mixed martial arts he has not submitted a fighter since UFC 36. When it comes to wresting Trigg has the advantage and was a standout on the University of Oklahoma team. He has the size and the strength which he will use to his advantage against the 5 foot 5 Serra. The last time Trigg lost by submission was to Carlos Condit. His other submission losses were to Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre. All three loses came by rear naked choke. Interesting note: Serra has never had a rear naked choke submission.
Serra is a powerful striker but he likes to throw the wild overhand punch. Since Serra is so much smaller than his average opponent he needs to throw looping shots just to connect. Unfortunately, every fighter in the world is aware that all Serra has is his overhand punch, and not much more. On the other hand Trigg is a decent striker—he is not great but he has enough skills to get by as evident by his six wins by TKO.
In mixed martial arts, Trigg has proven he can win against high level grapplers. He has beaten BJJ black belts Renato Verissimo, jiu-jitsu legend Jean Jacques Machado as well as Fabiano Iha and Denis Hallman.
Trigg fights better when the spotlight is off him. He TKO’ed Jason "Mayhem" Miller and upset Kazuo Misaki at Pride 33. The difference in this fight is that Trigg is a true 170 pound welterweight while Serra is really a lightweight and should be fighting in the 155 pound division. He is just too small at 5 foot 5 to compete with bigger stronger fighters at 170. Just ask BJ Penn... Serra does not have what it takes to go toe-to-toe with Trigg will be at the receiving end of his striking reach, takedowns and ground and pound. Serra has shorter limbs and will not be able to hold Trigg in his guard.
Sports wagering wise, this is the best fight to bet on at UFC 109. The lines for this battle are quite accurate but personally, I would have opened up with both fighters at -110. Getting Trigg as the underdog at +110 is a great deal and is only as such because Serra has received more marketing and air time—he was a coach on the TUF Ultimate Fighter show and has that one victory over GSP.
An even better bet to make is a UFC prop bet. In Serra’s last nine UFC fights, 7 of them have gone the distance. He will be battered by Trigg but Trigg does not have the grappling skill nor does he the power to put Serra away. Trigg on the other hand, has had four decisions out of his last seven fights. He has the size to prevent Serra from trapping him in any takedown and submission attempts and has enough skill in the stand up to avoid his one power shot. The best bet is make a parlay combined with a prop bet for Trigg to win on the moneyline (+110) and for the fight to go the distance (-230).
Lay a lot of money on Trigg to win by decision
About the Author
Sleung is one of the world's best mixed martial arts expert and is an expert UFC and MMA handicapping. Get all the latest MMA and UFC betting advice. If you want the latest handicapping advice and sports betting inside information on how to bet and handicap mixed martial arts for to the best MMA site in the world at www.fighting-mma.com
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